Aaron Gardner --- Red State
Colorado’s incumbent Democrat Senator and Governor have not had a good summer. Both are now down in the polls to their Republican challengers, Gardner and Beauprez. While Governor Hickenlooper once again fumbled the gun issue in a recent debate, Senator Udall decided to speak for the beheaded victims of ISIS, offending many Colorado voters, to whom Udall was forced to apologize.
Shortly after these events the polling models began to shift to likely voter models, and with that change former Congressman Bob Beauprez had his first poll showing him with a lead. While Rep. Cory Gardner was still trailing Sen. Udall, the next few weeks would change that as well.
Mark Udall had tried all summer to generate some momentum with the War on Women playbook, yet his numbers stayed around 45%. The Udall campaign has known they are in a real fight for a while now, but the attacks that came next, which dripped with desperation, were surprising, and very offensive.
Team Udall decided they would politicize the tragic floods Colorado experienced last year, by tying the flood response to the government shutdown. The backlash over Senator Udall’s ad was quick and came from sides that are not traditionally inclined to help Republicans. Some local outlets said the ad was a demonstration of everything wrong with politics.
This was a major misstep for the incumbent Senator.
Add these missteps together with the news from the NYT Poll that the Democrat advantage in the gender gap has essentially vanished, and it begins to become clear how Rep. Cory Gardner is now in the lead.
When asked “If the 2014 election for United States House of Representatives seats were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?” women favor Democrats over Republicans by one point only, 43 to 42 percent.
This is a huge swing in a short period of time: just one month earlier, women preferred Democrats by 51 percent to 37 percent in response to that question in a similar Wall Street Journal poll.
The Real Clear Politics (RCP) Average in the Colorado Senate Race has Udall up on Gardner .6% without todays latest release from PPP which shows Gardner up 2 points on Udall. The last three polls have all showed Gardner with the lead.